This page is focused on climate change adaptation science. Please visit the Defra mitigation page and the  Department for Energy and Climate Change website for information on climate change mitigation.

How might the climate change?

The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) are based on simulations from climate models and give projections of future changes to the climate in the UK to the end of this century. While there are assumptions and uncertainties within any projections, the UKCP09 are based on the most robust climate science to date. They show our level of confidence in our climate knowledge and modelling, by giving the results in ranges of numbers. This helps us understand the relative risks in the future.

Key findings

Detailed results and commentary are available, but in summary:

• Average UK summer temperature is likely to rise by 3-4°C by the 2080s. In general, greater warming is expected in the southeast than the northwest of the UK, and there may be more warming in the summer and autumn than winter and spring.
• Average summer rainfall across the UK may decrease by 11% to 27% by the 2080s. While this is the average, there will be a big change in rainfall between the seasons, with winters becoming wetter and summers drier.
• Sea levels are expected to rise. The central estimate (taking into account land movement) highlight sea level is projected to rise by 36cm in London by the 2080s.
• Extreme weather events are likely to become more common. For example, research published by the Met Office Hadley Centre suggests the summer heatwave we experienced in 2003 could become a normal event by the 2040s; by the 2060s, such a summer would be considered cool according to some models.

Note these key findings are based on a medium emissions scenario – one of three developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) and which are used in UCKP09. If we do not secure an ambitious, lasting global deal to limit emissions, the changes described may be exceeded. Further information on the key findings can be found on the UKCP09 website.

Though these projections give us an idea of how weather patterns will change, we cannot predict the future climate of the UK exactly – partly because we can’t be certain how emission levels will change, and also because no climate model can give a perfect representation of the climate.

What might this mean for the UK?

Just as the weather and the effect it has on society varies across the country, the impacts of climate change on our economy, infrastructure, society and environment will vary from place to place. These impacts can be both positive and negative.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) has undertaken a series of regional studies for each part of the UK, and identified a range of possible future impacts. The major consequences UKCIP has identified are:

• an increase in the risk of flooding and erosion
• greater pressure on drainage systems
• increased likelihood of winter storm damage
• loss of habitat for wildlife
• summer water shortages and low stream flows
• increased risk of subsidence (in areas where subsidence is already a problem)
• increased demand for summer cooling
• buildings becoming uncomfortably hot
• a range of health issues

Looking forward, the impacts will depend very significantly on how well individuals, government and private and community organisations plan for and adapt to climate changes. For example, health impacts during heatwaves can be reduced through effective planning and responses by health and social services, and by individuals knowing what best to do.

Further information and examples are available on the UKCIP website, while Defra’s Future Worlds images (PDF 3 MB) illustrate some of the actions we can take to adapt across a variety of natural and built environment settings. Alternatively, use the links below to find further information on what you or your organisation can do.

• Individuals
• Businesses
• Communities and Civil Society
• Local government

Using the UK Climate Projections

Understanding how our climate might change helps us prepare. Organisations need good evidence, including a measure of the uncertainties involved, to help them consider the risks a changing climate might pose and plan what they should do to increase resilience and reduce those risks.

The projections give organisations evidence to help them take informed, cost-effective and timely decisions on preparing for the changing climate. They were created to be used by people working in all sorts of organisations in the UK, and all information is provided free of charge. For example, your organisation should be starting to consider how they might adapt to a changing climate if it is:

• taking decisions or making investments with long-lifetimes, such as construction
• providing or supporting critical national infrastructure, like power supply
• taking decisions with significant impacts, perhaps creating a technical standard, that cannot be changed for more than a decade

It is possible for users to create customisable outputs, and obtain guidance on how the projections were developed and should be used on the dedicated UKCP09 technical website.

You may also be interested in:

• Adapting to climate change
• Mitigating climate change – Defra’s role
• Advice by sector
• What is the government doing?
• A to Z of adaptation

If you can’t find the information you’re looking for, or to offer comments and suggestions, please contact us at acc.mailbox@defra.gsi.gov.uk.