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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

The Government published the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) on 25 January 2012, the first assessment of its kind for the UK and the first in a 5 year cycle.

Information on this page includes:

The CCRA has reviewed the evidence for over 700 potential impacts of climate change in a UK context. Detailed analysis was undertaken for over 100 of these impacts across 11 key sectors, on the basis of their likelihood, the scale of their potential consequences and the urgency with which action may be needed to address them.

Producing the CCRA has involved a high degree of consultation and review. The outputs provide an evidence base that can be used by central Government and Devolved Administrations in identifying priorities for action and appropriate adaptation measures that will be required to minimise risks to our economy, environment and society.

Although the primary customer for this work is central Government and the Devolved Administrations, the outputs from the CCRA are also of value to other public and private sector organisations.

This independent analysis was funded by UK Government and Devolved Governments and has been delivered through a consortium of organisations led by HR Wallingford. The outputs have been extensively peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts, an independent international peer review panel, and have also been scrutinised by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.

We want your views – help develop the National Adaptation Programme

We will be working with businesses, civil society and local government to develop the UK’s first National Adaptation Programme to maintain the resilience of the UK to climate change and changing weather.

Please make the time to contribute – whether it’s sharing an innovative method, or a small change that would make a big difference – via this dedicated area on our website. This is the start of a dialogue that will continue throughout 2012.

The CCRA UK Government Report

This report sets out the main priorities for adaptation in the UK under 5 key themes identified in the CCRA 2012 Evidence Report – Agriculture and Forestry; Business, industries and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Natural Environment and Buildings and Infrastructure – and describes the policy context, and action already in place to tackle some of the risks in each area. It highlights the constraints of the CCRA analysis and provides advice on how to take account of the uncertainty within the analysis.

Underpinning evidence for the CCRA

The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has allowed for comparison of over 100 risks (prioritised from an initial list of over 700) from a number of disparate sectors based on the magnitude of the impact and confidence in the evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is using a consistent method and set of climate projections to look at current and future risks and opportunities.

The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages involving expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable, repeatable methodology that is not dependent on changes in long term plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA.

The results, with the exception of population growth where this is relevant, do not include societal change in assessing future risks, either from non-climate related change, for example economic growth, or developments in new technologies; or future responses to climate risks such as future or planned Government policies or private adaptation investment plans.

Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust ‘baseline’ against which the effects of different plans and policies can be more easily assessed. However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essential to consider that Government and key organisations are already taking action in many areas to minimise climate change risks and these interventions need to be considered when assess where further action may be best directed or needed.

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report

The Evidence Report provides an overview of climate change risks and opportunities based on the analyses described in the Sector Reports and other sources of information.

It is intended to provide information to policy makers on the risks and opportunities from climate change and the vulnerability of the UK. The analysis is presented in 5 themes: Agriculture and Forestry; Business, Industry and Services; Health and Wellbeing; Buildings and Infrastructure; Natural Environment. Climate change risks in each theme are presented in terms of the range of potential magnitude of the risk, how magnitude varies over time and the overall confidence in the findings of the assessment.

The Evidence Report has been extensively peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts, an independent international peer review panel, and have also been scrutinised by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change.

For a full list of comments and responses please contact us at ccra@defra.gsi.gov.uk.

Reports and Summaries for each of the eleven sectors

The underpinning evidence for the CCRA was collected using eleven ‘sectors’ or research areas. The background Sector Reports describe a wide range of potential risks in each sector, followed by a more detailed analysis of selected risks that were judged to be the most important.

Agriculture:

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services:

Built Environment:

Business, Industry and Services:

Energy:

Floods and Coastal Erosion:

Forestry:

Health:

Marine and Fisheries:

Transport:

Water:

Peer review

The Sector Reports were peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts. For a list of peer reviewer’s comments, and responses to them, please contact us at ccra@defra.gsi.gov.uk.

Other Reports

Devolved Administration Reports and Summaries

The reports for Devolved Governments were based on the UK-wide Sector Reports but take account of risks that are of particular concern in each country:

Scotland

Wales

Northern Ireland

Climate Change Partnership Information Packs: Summary of Climate Change Risks

To coincide with the publication of the CCRA, and given the importance of adaptation action at a local level, Defra commissioned the nine Climate Change Partnerships across England to produce information packs to highlight key risks and opportunities from climate change and what they mean across a range of sectors within each area.

Drawing on information within the CCRA and other local evidence, the Climate Change Partnership’s analysis illustrates what climate change may mean at the local level for people, businesses, community and charitable groups, local authorities, and other organisations across key sectors. It also highlights what is currently being done to address risks and where there is a strong case for greater local action.

The Partnership’s information packs can be seen from the following links:

Related Publications

Page last modified: 10 February 2012