Since the start of the outbreak various additional control measures have been put in place to tighten controls against illegal imports, in order to safeguard against recurrence of disease. However, the ability to design the most effective measures to minimise the risk was hampered by an imperfect understanding of the nature of the illegal trade, plus inadequate data to help identify and target the risks.

To address these issues, Defra commissioned the VLA’s Risk Research team to assess:

“ the probability of infection with FMD of GB livestock as a result of illegally imported meat”

A risk assessment was designed to provide information on the key factors contributing to the risk, identify potential exposure pathways and assess the risk of ultimate exposure of susceptible livestock in GB.

Diagram Hypothetical routes by which pathogenic organisms can reach British livestock. Click here to open

The risk assessment model needed to estimate:

• the flow of illegal meat into GB
• the probability that illegal meat is contaminated with FMD virus and the level of contamination
• the probability and frequency with which contaminated, illegally imported meat results in exposure and infection of GB livestock

Graph 90% Uncertainty band associated with regional estimates of the contaminated flow of illegal meat March 2003 (Kg per year) Click here to open

The first task of any risk assessment is the acquisition of all available data and information. This risk assessment was comprehensive and took into consideration illegal imports from 223 inhabited territories of the world. It also considered the total number of meat or meat products (of mammalian origin) from these areas. Given that illegal imports of every conceivable type of meat and meat products were recorded, the collection and analysis of this data was a considerable undertaking.

Key issues to consider were:

• the number of attempts at illegal imports
• the biological characteristics of FMD virus
• prevalence of FMD throughout the world
• the processes imported meat products may be subject to, could result in exposure of livestock to FMD virus

The information gathering process and data collection involved extensive discussions with experts in the enforcement agencies, such as Her Majesty’s Customs and Excise and the Association of Port Health Authorities. Feedback on the risk assessment process was provided by a Steering Group consisting of Defra officials and a number of stakeholders including the National Farmers Union, Food Standards Agency and International Meat Traders Association. All these organisations were also involved in providing feedback to ensure that the risk assessment work addressed issues of concern among stakeholders and would ultimately provide a useable tool for decision-makers.

The model results were announced at a press conference on 25 March 2003 and important conclusions included:

• the top five regions contributing to the total flow are Eastern Europe, West Africa, Near & Middle East and Southern Africa
• it is estimated that approximately 85% of the total weight of illegal meat enters GB by personal baggage
• the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is on average 7,431 tonnes. This is equivalent to 3% of the total volume of legally imported meat from non-EU countries
• the amount of meat entering GB illegally which is contaminated with the FMD virus is estimated to be 0.001% of the total flow

This risk assessment is at the ‘cutting edge’ of the import risk assessment arena. It has broken new ground in both scope and complexity. The insights gained have already proved very valuable to policy makers tasked with developing safeguards against exotic diseases such as FMD.

The tools developed are now being used to address the issues of the probability of future infection of GB livestock with Classical Swine Fever, African Swine Fever and Swine Vesicular Disease.
They provide a dynamic approach to help tackle exotic disease control.