STATISTICAL RELEASE
Date: 29 March 2007
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Provisional 2006 UK climate change sustainable development indicator and final 2005 air pollutant emissions
Defra today published provisional 2006 estimates for its climate change sustainable development indicator, as well as final figures for 2005 air pollutant emissions for the UK.
Greenhouse gas emissions - provisional 2006 results
- It is provisionally estimated that, in 2006, emissions of the total ‘basket’ of six greenhouse gases [1] covered by the Kyoto Protocol were around 15 per cent below the base year, down from 775.2 to 658.1 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. (The base year is 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for fluorinated compounds.) To meet its commitment to the Protocol, the UK has agreed to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 12½ per cent relative to the base year over the period 2008-2012.
- Net emissions of carbon dioxide during the year have provisionally been estimated at around 560.6 million tonnes, about 5¼ per cent lower than the 1990 level of 592.1 million tonnes. Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for around 84 per cent of all emissions in the “basket” in 2005, the latest year for which final results are available.
- The provisional estimate of 2006 carbon dioxide emissions is around 1¼ per cent higher than the 2005 figure. This increase was primarily as a result of fuel switching from natural gas to coal for electricity generation. This has also resulted in an estimated increase of ½ per cent in emissions from the total basket of gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol for the year.
- Aside from the Kyoto target, the UK aims to move towards its own domestic goal of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide by 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010. Under the Government’s Climate Change Bill, which is currently at draft stage, it is now also proposed that the UK puts itself on a path towards a legally binding target of a 60 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions below 1990 levels by 2050. The Bill also incorporates an interim requirement of a reduction of between 26 and 32 per cent over the period 2018-2022.
- The European Union is currently committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 across all member states, and has undertaken to achieve a 30 per cent reduction by 2020 if this was part of a wider international agreement.
- The EU Emissions Trading Scheme commenced operating in 2005. Under this Scheme, UK industries had to purchase 27.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide more than their allocation for the year. Further details are in the Defra news release of 15th May 2006. Trading Scheme results for 2006 are expected to become available in May 2007.
A table summarising the headline results can be found here:
The figures shown as total emissions from the basket of greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol since 1990 have been revised slightly since publication on 31st January 2007. This revision only applies to the Kyoto basket total, and takes account of a correction in the treatment of land use, land use change and forestry. Most of the changes result in a slight downward revision in the total emissions for some years, and represent a difference of less than 0.3 per cent of total emissions. The revised numbers will be submitted to the UNFCCC on 15th April, and indicate that progress towards the UK’s Kyoto commitment is slightly better than previously estimated.
Basis of the provisional 2006 estimates
Provisional estimates of carbon dioxide emissions are produced by DTI and Defra from provisional inland energy consumption statistics which will be published on 29th March in the DTI quarterly Energy Trends. These provisional estimates will be subject to revision when final estimates are published in 2008, but they provide an early indication of emissions in the most recent full year. The majority of provisional estimates are within 1% of the final figures.
Carbon dioxide accounts for the majority of the basket of greenhouse gas emissions (84 per cent in 2005). In order to give an indication of what the latest provisional carbon dioxide emission estimates imply for the basket total, a simple estimate is made by assuming that the trend for the remaining gases in the basket will be half way between ‘no change’ on 2005 and a repeat of the trend indicated by the last 7 years’ data (1999-2005). In order to establish an estimate of emissions from the total basket of gases for the year, a further adjustment is then made in respect of emissions from Overseas Territories.
Further analysis of the provisional 2005 carbon dioxide estimates may be found in the special feature in DTI’s Energy Trends published today.
Additional notes
Emissions are presented as carbon dioxide equivalent, in line with international reporting and carbon trading.
Carbon dioxide is reported as total emissions minus total removals by carbon sinks. This net basis is consistent with that adopted in the 2006 UK Climate Change Programme and allows the forestry sector to contribute fully towards the UK’s 20 per cent emission reduction goal.
The UK greenhouse gas inventory is now as consistent as possible with the basis on which UK compliance with the Kyoto Protocol will ultimately be assessed. It takes into account net emissions from afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and forest management, and includes emissions for the UK Overseas Territories of Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and Montserrat. These adjustments also mean that the greenhouse gas basket differs very slightly from the sum of the individual gases shown.
More detail on greenhouse gas emission final figures for years up to and including 2005 may be found on the Defra web site.
Also published on the Defra website today is the breakdown of 2005 greenhouse gas emissions by end-user. These results are based on the breakdown by source of the final results for 2005, which was published on 31st January 2007, and reallocate the emissions by source in accordance with where the end-use occurred. The results shown in this breakdown are based on a number of assumptions, and we would therefore expect them to be subject to a wider margin of error than the breakdown by source. The results can be found on the Digest of Environmental Statistics. Please note that the presentation of the end-user breakdown has been changed and now follows IPCC guidance, bringing it into line with the breakdown by source published previously. The IPCC format is used for reporting UK greenhouse gas emissions to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. As a result of this, there have been some slight changes to the sub-categories included in the breakdown in comparison with previous years.
Other atmospheric emissions – 2005 final results
Also published today are the first results from the UK atmospheric emission inventory for 2005 for air pollutants other than greenhouse gases.
- There is a long term trend of a reduction in air pollutant emissions in all of the pollutants in the inventory.
- Emissions of all of the gases covered in the Air Quality Strategy [2] have continued to fall between 2004 and 2005.
- Emissions of the majority of metals remain relatively stable with some rises relating to changes in fuel use.
- Persistent organic pollutants emissions show falls in all of the pollutants between 2004 and 2005, except for Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) emissions from pesticide use which show no change.
Reducing emissions of these pollutants is important because of the effects they have on human health or on natural ecosystems. Results for emissions covered by the EU National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD) are shown below:
Sulphur dioxide
Total emissions of sulphur dioxide fell by 81 per cent between 1990 and 2005 from 3.7 to 0.7 million tonnes. The UK is committed to further reductions to approximately 0.6 tonnes by 2010 under the EU NECD. The main source of emissions is coal use in power stations and other industries.
Nitrogen oxides
Total nitrogen oxides emissions fell by 45 per cent between 1990 and 2005 from 3.0 to 1.6 million tonnes. The UK is committed to further reductions to approximately 1.2 million tonnes by 2010 under the EU NECD. Road transport is the largest source of emissions of nitrogen oxides accounting for 42 per cent of the total in 2005.
Non-methane volatile organic compounds
Emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) fell by 59 per cent between 1990 and 2005, from 2.4 million to 1.0 million tonnes. This is below the target from the EU NECD for the UK to reduce emissions to 1.2 million tonnes by 2010. Road transport, solvent use, leakage from gas and oil extraction and distribution are the primary sources of NMVOC emissions.
Ammonia
Ammonia emissions fell by 17 per cent between 1990 and 2005 from 383 thousand to 318 thousand tonnes. This compares with the target for 2010 of 297 thousand tonnes under the EU NECD. Ninety per cent of total ammonia emissions in 2005 were from agriculture.
Emissions totals for these and other air pollutants are summarised in the following table:
Air pollutant emissions on a UNECE basis: 1970 - 2005 |
|||||||||
|
Units |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Percentage change 1990 to 2005 |
Main air pollutants |
|||||||||
Sulphur dioxide |
kt |
6370 |
4775 |
3687 |
1215 |
991 |
836 |
706 |
-81% |
Nitrogen oxides |
kt |
3130 |
2772 |
2966 |
1897 |
1728 |
1664 |
1627 |
-45% |
Non-methane volatile organic compounds |
kt |
1923 |
2097 |
2386 |
1338 |
1064 |
1009 |
977 |
-59% |
Ammonia |
kt |
.. |
.. |
383 |
343 |
313 |
318 |
318 |
-17% |
Particulates (PM10) |
kt |
499 |
349 |
305 |
184 |
155 |
154 |
150 |
-51% |
Carbon monoxide |
kt |
12108 |
9137 |
8229 |
4239 |
2947 |
2711 |
2417 |
-71% |
Hydrogen chloride |
kt |
333 |
306 |
270 |
85 |
42 |
30 |
21 |
-92% |
Hydrogen fluoride |
kt |
14 |
12 |
10 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
-51% |
Benzene |
kt |
48 |
46 |
56 |
18 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
-75% |
1,3-Butadiene |
kt |
9 |
10 |
12 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
-78% |
Metals |
|||||||||
Arsenic |
t |
.. |
56 |
47 |
20 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
-69% |
Cadmium |
t |
.. |
29 |
24 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
-84% |
Chromium |
t |
.. |
186 |
160 |
73 |
41 |
39 |
36 |
-78% |
Copper |
t |
.. |
161 |
144 |
80 |
64 |
65 |
60 |
-58% |
Mercury |
t |
.. |
43 |
38 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
-80% |
Nickel |
t |
.. |
581 |
334 |
104 |
68 |
84 |
87 |
-74% |
Lead |
t |
.. |
8306 |
2912 |
165 |
130 |
134 |
118 |
-96% |
Selenium |
t |
.. |
98 |
89 |
45 |
41 |
47 |
49 |
-46% |
Zinc |
t |
.. |
1047 |
1013 |
635 |
501 |
513 |
461 |
-55% |
Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) |
|||||||||
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) |
T |
.. |
.. |
7795 |
1823 |
1425 |
1325 |
1248 |
-84% |
gamma HCH |
T |
.. |
.. |
99 |
33 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
-85% |
PCP |
T |
.. |
.. |
751 |
605 |
508 |
476 |
451 |
-40% |
HCB |
kg |
.. |
.. |
3515 |
325 |
329 |
850 |
851 |
-76% |
PCBs |
kg |
.. |
.. |
6580 |
1304 |
1106 |
1087 |
1028 |
-84% |
Dioxins and furans |
g |
.. |
.. |
1112 |
229 |
202 |
230 |
205 |
-82% |
Detailed data tables for these pollutants, together with many other environmental statistics, may be found on the Defra website at:
Footnotes
1. The basket of greenhouse gases consists of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride, weighted by global warming potential.
2. Sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulates (PM10), benzene and 1,3-butadiene and lead (results do not include ozone which is created by reactions in the atmosphere).
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Page published: 27 March 2007