6 THE FUTURE PROGRAMME
6.1 Progress towards completion
In general terms, the project is on timetable.
6.2 Objectives for the period October 2000 – March 2001
The following major tasks are scheduled for the next period of the report
- Completion of data collection from the spring 2000 sites
- Early rounds of data collection from the autumn 2000 (winter rape) sites
- Re-assessment of field protocols, and submission of any recommended changes to the Scientific Steering Committee (required by February 2001 to be in time for the next field season)
- Continued progress in data entry, validation, management and analysis procedures
- Submission of manuscripts to journals on overall project approach, experimental design and protocols
- Provision of feedback to farmers that have taken part in the project so far
6.3 Recommendations for sample sizes, spring 2001
The site selection process has shown that it is possible to generate a sample of farms and fields that do appear to be broadly representative of those conditions likely to be encountered in commercial cropping. Site numbers for beet and winter oil seed rape have been satisfactory. As we had fewer sites for maize and spring rape than our target of 20 – 25, we need to increase the numbers next year if we are to avoid a shortfall. We propose 32 sites for each of these two crops. These should be taken from a larger number of sites offered by SCIMAC, ideally in the order of 50 or so. We recognise that this may be difficult, as both are grown in low areas nationally compared with the other crops in the study.
We had 24 sites for beet this season, including sugar beet and fodder beet. Until more data have been analysed, we cannot give a definitive recommendation about whether they should be treated as distinct crops. At this stage, we propose 32 sites, including both sugar and fodder beet, again drawn from a larger number of offered sites.
6.4 Next steps for data management and analysis
The project timetable requires that the final analyses are undertaken, interpreted and submitted very rapidly following the final data collection at the end of the final field seasons. This is only possible given several preconditions; these are discussed in turn.
6.4.1 Rapid data entry and validation
The data entry procedures have been under development this year, and so there is an inevitable delay before finalised datasets become available for analysis. In future, data entry will take place on a rolling programme, and as much of the validation takes place at the time of data entry, data will be available for analysis much more rapidly. The new systems will be implemented during 2001.
6.4.2 Automated analyses
Progress towards automated tests of the project's null hypothesis is well in hand (see Section 3).
6.4.3 Agreed interpretation of analyses
One of the more complex issues underlying the farm scale evaluations is how to interpret a large set of individual statistical tests. It is not enough to somehow balance individual test results; it is important to identify those combinations of results that imply consistent impacts on biodiversity, especially in the longer term and larger scale. We expect this work to be completed, and agreed with the SSC, by late 2001.
Published 2 January 2001
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