About climate change: UK effects
New climate change scenarios were launched by Defra in April 2002 (see www.ukcip.org.uk/scenarios). This page gives a summary of what climate change means for us in the UK.
Temperatures
The scenarios show that average annual temperatures across the UK may rise by between 2° and 3.5°C by the 2080s, with the degree of warming dependent on future levels of greenhouse gas emissions. In general there will be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west of the UK (see figure, below). High summer temperatures will become more frequent and very cold winters will become increasingly rare. For example, a very hot August, such as that experienced in 1995 may occur as often as two years in three by the 2080s under the higher emissions scenarios.
More rain in winter; less in summer
It is not just temperatures that will change in the UK, but also rainfall amounts and frequency. Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier across all of the UK (see figure, below). The largest relative changes will be in the south and east where summer precipitation may decline by up to 50 % by the 2080s. Heavy winter precipitation will become more frequent, but the amount of snow could decline by 60% - 90% by the 2080s.
Rising sea levels
In addition, sea levels will continue to rise and could be between 26 and 86 cm above the current level in southeast England by the 2080s. Extreme high water levels, which currently have a 2% annual probability of occurring, could become 10 to 20 times more frequent at some east coast locations by the 2080s.
Page last modified: 01 December, 2005
Page published: 01 December, 2005