PETS: Risk assessment
A key element in the inquiry by the Advisory Group on Quarantine was the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. Its concern was to measure the risk of importing an animal with rabies into Great Britain under any changed system as compared with the system of quarantine.
This involved a three step process. First, to identify the risk, if any, of importing rabies under the quarantine system. Second, to assess the risk if one or a combination of the measures considered by the Group were to replace quarantine. Third, in carrying out these two exercises, to make certain assumptions: how many animals were currently smuggled, how many travellers would wish to bring their animals with them, and take them out and return with them, if resident in Great Britain.
Chapter 10 of the Kennedy Report setting out the principal salient features of the risk assessment is reproduced here. The full risk assessment can be found in Annex 10 of the Kennedy Report. It is not reproduced here.
The Group also recommended the commission of a separate study of the numbers of cats and dogs which might be brought into Great Britain from North America if quarantine were not applied and to carry out a risk assessment in the light of the results of that study. The background to this study and the risk assessment itself are reproduced here.
Page last modified: January 17, 2006